The Shocking Of Buhari: The South-East Factor

By Socrates Ebo

Major General Muhammadu Buhari, no doubt, is a dazed man. The events of April 16, 2011 will forever stir bewilderment in his mind. General Buhari had cut for himself a stiff image of a no-nonsense man. It is an image that was carefully cultivated during his brief 1984/85 draconian convulsions in the rulership of our beguiled nation. Ever since, General Buhari had undergone and indeed survived many mutations in Nigeria’s volcanic political thoroughfare. From his journey to the dungeon under the cunning eyes of the evil genius, General Buhari re-emerged into national limelight once more after rehabilitation by the dark goggles-wearing late maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha. The famed general was placed at the head of the PTF where he performed wonderfully well in the North and controversially in the South.
    Buhari: still dazed by his defeat

In 2003, the maladministration of General Olusegun Obasanjo brought General Buhari once more to national limelight. It was the election of the generals. General Obasanjo flew the PDP flag, General Buhari flew the ANPP flag, while General Ojukwu flew the APGA flag. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo seemed to be taking revenge on hapless Nigerians for not taking to the streets when he was jailed by the dark-goggled general. Although Abacha chastised Nigerians with scorpion, Chief Obasanjo, it appeared, was rescuing Nigerians with hot iron and red pepper. Hence, it was a period of difficult choice for Nigerians. Okadigbo had been cheated out of the ANPP primaries. The Northern establishment-owned ANPP had lured unsuspecting Igbo aspirants to the unattractive ANPP by promising to have zoned the presidency to the South-East, only to do a double turn and throw up one of their own, General Buhari, leaving hoodwinked Igbo aspirants despondent and befuddled. Rochas Okorocha and Okwesilieze Nwodo had to storm out of the party. Okadigbo, the celebrated Oyi of Oyi of oratorical fame, had to make do with the crumbs. Predicating his reading of the political moment, the zeitgeist, on political arithmetic predicated on political sagacity, the vibrant and cerebrally fiery Okadigbo made do with the role of the second fiddle.

Nonetheless, the Okadigboic deputizing of the General Buhari candidacy made his candidature tolerable if not saleable in the South-East. General Buhari had no problems getting his votes from the South-East, though it eventually turned out that INEC and never the people went to the polls. Thus, INEC declared their winners and the people watched by the sidelines. The Oyi of Oyi had to die in no less controversial circumstances as a fallout of the infamous polls.

Bolstered by the sympathy he received in 2003, General Buhari ventured again into the political seas only to find himself tossed mercilessly by the turbulent winds of the ubiquitous PDP amoral machinery. Alhaji Atiku was favoured but it appeared the PDP government was never interested in letting the votes count. The signs were emerging but General Buhari could not see it. Nigerians were already raising questions about the suitability of the Buhari candidacy for the presidency of Nigeria.

The election of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was arguably the worst in the history of Nigeria. Two Northern candidates were grossly short-changed. Of course, not before dealing notable Southerners raw deals at the primaries. Remember the presidential bids of Peter Odili, Donald Duke, Sam Egwu, et al. Surprisingly, despite the massive irregularities that where embedded in the very bone marrow of that election, not a whimper was heard from the North. I repeat, not a whimper was heard from the North. Yeah, not a whimper was heard from the North. The Northern establishment repeatedly appealed to the duo of General Buhari and Alhaji Atiku to drop their legal challenges to the election of President Yar’Adua. But if Alhaji Atiku gave signs of mellowing down, General Buhari maintained a stiff rebuff till the bitter end. The Supreme Court rested their cases in a very controversial pluralist judgment.

At the incapacitation and ultimate demise of Alhaji Yar’Adua, the Northern establishment served the rest of the country notice that they would be more likely to accept a replacement for the late Yar’Adua only if he were of the Northern stock. This gave Dr Jonathan the unenviable record of being the most powerless Vice President in Nigerian history and the most disregarded Acting President in the world at the time of that tragicomedy.

Enter the debate on zoning which was decisively thrashed with the unflattering defeat of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku by President Goodluck Jonathan at the PDP primaries. The statement on zoning was so bold that Mallam Adamu Ciroma, the face of zoning, was trounced by Dr Jonathan even in his home state. Alhaji Atiku was not spared either. However, the core North kept faith with zoning.

The surprising choice of Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly by General Muhammadu Buhari as his vice presidential candidate left many pundits stranded in the wilderness of thought. The thinking in the camp of the General was that a North-West/South-West alliance was cool, not minding that the South-West had the presidency in recent eight uninterrupted years.

Ignore Ndigbo at your own political peril. Dr Goodluck Jonathan assiduously sought alliance with the South-East and the North-Central while reaching out frantically to the rest of the country. General Buhari made frantic efforts but generally not toward the South-East.

Now the South-Easterners are the most evenly geographically distributed citizens in the country. They can be found in reasonable numbers in all states of the federation and Federal Capital Territory. A useful factor in the 25% requirement of the Electoral Act. A fact General Buhari, if aware of its importance, obviously underrated.

This error of judgment upturned political calculations in the camp of those who never noticed. April 16 was the date. From North-East to North-West, Dr Jonathan got his 25%. From North-Central to South-West, Dr Jonathan got his winnings. The significant presence of South-Easterners in Tinubu’s Lagos contributed in tilting the cup of victory in favour of the lucky Goodluck. The result from South-East was the bomb: over 80% victory in favour of Jonathan, over 70% turnout in many of the states.

The moral: ignore the South-East at your political peril.

Ebo wrote in from Lagos.
+2348064641470, ebosocrates@yahoo.com