The Failed APGA/ACN Coalition In Imo State

By Chuks OLUIGBO

It is no longer news that the 2011 governorship election in Imo State was yesterday, April 27, 2011 declared inconclusive by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. This, reports say, became necessary because from the results already declared, there seemed to be a stalemate between the candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, candidate, Incumbent Ikedi Ohakim (now that ‘incumbent’ appears to have become a title in Nigerian politics). Results from three local government areas, Ohaji/Egbema, Ngor Okpala and Oguta, were cancelled outright because it was alleged that elections were not concluded in those areas, while that of Mbaitoli is facing serious controversy. And there seem to be arguments that even if the remaining results were announced, none of the two candidates would be able to meet the required two-thirds majority votes for a clear win. Is there then going to be a run-off? We await INEC’s verdict.

Meanwhile, as at the morning of April 27 when results began to emerge, APGA had a clear win over PDP and APGA supporters took to the streets to celebrate, but it was too early in the day for celebration. The early results were only from Orlu, Mr Okorocha’s home zone. APGA supporters were shocked when results from other zones began to come out and at one point, PDP balanced up and almost overtook APGA. As at the last count, it was 12 LGAs to APGA and 11 to PDP. (I may not be totally correct because there are many contradictory reports).

Now, if I may refer to an earlier analysis, “Why Ohakim May Win Imo Guber Race”, I did make the following predictions about the Imo guber election: “Orlu zone will be divided between Ohakim and Okorocha, but Ohakim will win. The contest in Okigwe zone will be between Ohakim and Araraume, but Ohakim will win. Okorocha’s votes in Okigwe may turn out to be insignificant. Contestants like Ike C. Ibe and Emeka Nwajiuba may gather few sympathy votes in Okigwe, but that’s how far they can go. The parties they represent do not exist in Imo State. In Owerri zone, there will be a severe struggle between Ohakim and Okorocha. Okorocha’s deputy, Sir Jude Agbaso, is from Owerri zone. And so is Ohakim’s deputy, Prof Viola Onwuliri. Both parties will share the votes in the zone.”

Did my predictions come true? Let’s look at the details again. Imo has a total of 27 local government areas. 12 of these are in Orlu zone, 9 are in Owerri zone, while 6 are in Okigwe zone. From the results already announced, Rochas Okorocha won 9 out of 10 LGAs in Orlu zone. The remaining 2 LGAs are Ohaji/Egbema and Oguta where the elections were cancelled. In Okigwe, Ikedi Ohakim swept the 6 LGAs and came close to balancing up with Okorocha. The real contest was therefore in Owerri where the duo are still dragging over who leads. I was proved wrong in Orlu, but not in Okigwe and Owerri. Now what really transpired?

Few days to the guber election, there was an eleventh hour meeting between the supporters of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA in Imo State. The meeting held at the house of ex-governor Achike Udenwa in Amaifeke, Orlu. There, an agreement was reached as per the pattern of voting. In Orlu zone, APGA and ACN were to coalesce so as to give Owelle Rochas Okorocha a massive victory in the zone. In Okigwe zone, all votes from both parties would go to ACN to reduce the margin with which Ohakim would have won Okorocha, because, take it or leave it, Okorocha is not a march for Ohakim in Okigwe, any day. In Owerri, which was to be the deciding factor, the same voting pattern in Orlu would be applied. The rationale for this was that if Okorocha won the 12 LGAs in Orlu and at least 6 in Owerri, he would have got 18 LGAs, a clear two-thirds, and with the Araraume distraction in Okigwe, victory for Okorocha would have been a done deal.

To an extent, the APGA/ACN coalition did work. It was able to give Rochas Okorocha majority votes in Orlu zone. However, it was too late in coming. It was one thing to reach such an agreement, it was another to reach out to the thousands of party supporters out there to inform them of the new development. Much like the failed last minute attempt at coalition between Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, and Ribadu’s ACN prior to the April 16 presidential polls, the APGA/ACN alliance in Imo State would have been more productive had it come at an earlier time.

Now that there is a stalemate and a possibility of a run-off, where will the balance tilt?

Imo Governorship Elections Fraught With Violence

By Steve Uzoechi

The governorship election in Imo State was fraught with diverse electoral malpractices, ranging from ballot box snatching, ballot stuffing, thuggery, and outright voters disenfranchisement.

The opposition parties in the state have blamed these electoral malfeasance on the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

In Owerri North council area, as at 6.20pm, no election materials have been brought to over five polling centres in the Okigwe Road and Orji areas of the council. While there were security agents at the polling units, there were no INEC officials in two of the polling units.

In a polling unit in Ihiagwa, Owerri West council area, voters refused to vote with what they described as ‘fake electoral materials’ brought in after some individuals, claiming to be policemen, took away the original materials and brought a different set after three hours.

At Uzoagba, in Ikeduru council area, electoral materials in booth 8 were snatched by unidentified hoodlums. Also at Okwu, Eziama, and Ugirike wards, ballot boxes and all electoral materials were snatched by unknown gunmen. Amaimo Central School of the same council erupted in a free-for-all-fight following suspicions of manipulation.

At Nguru centre in Aboh Mbaise council area, men in army uniform, wielding military rifles, took away electoral materials in the area.

In the same Aboh Mbaise, Godfrey Dikeocha, a former Speaker of the State Assembly and aide to governor Ikedi Ohakim and one Ogunewe Princewill, a representative at Okeovoro Development Centre, allegedly stormed polling units with armed thugs, two of whom were identified as Udochukwu Onyekwere and Ekwueme Nweke. The polling booths raided are at Umunebie Ndigbu Uvuru.

“As at 6.10pm, there was no voting in the entire Ngor Okpala council area of Imo State due to issues ranging from the absence of result sheets to the unavailability of other relevant documents for the elections,” the chairman of the All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP), Vitalis Ajumbe, said.

Snatching Ballots

Ballot papers were allegedly taken away from these polling units and thumb printed for the PDP outside the polling station by armed thugs hired by some officials of the state government.

There were many casualties, including one Hapuruchi Ejiekpe who was seriously injured and is hospitalised.

Also at Ezinihitte council area of the state, Chinemerem Madu, the PDP chairman of the area, allegedly invaded polling booth 004, Ward 1, Amumara, Ezinihitte, with thugs; allegedly compelling voters to vote PDP and openly sharing money to people.

A retired SSS officer, Joebra Nwachukwu, was reported to have been nearly assaulted when he challenged them. The police were called in, but did not intervene in the matter and left in their Imo Transport Company (ITC) commercial bus, Registration No. XC 846 WER.

Some of the colluding policemen were identified as Ekene Basil (401435); Chilaka Duru (427155); Paul Sunday (without number), and others.

It was a theatre of war in Oguta council area, as sporadic gunshots were heard from different areas, especially the Izombe community where two of the major contenders for the House of Assembly seat came from. There was rampant snatching of ballot boxes and electoral materials at Izombe.

There was also unconfirmed report of an arrest at a hotel in the state capital, where people were caught thumb printing in one of the hotel rooms, although the police spokesperson refused to confirm it.

Source: http://234next.com

The Shocking Of Buhari: The South-East Factor

By Socrates Ebo

Major General Muhammadu Buhari, no doubt, is a dazed man. The events of April 16, 2011 will forever stir bewilderment in his mind. General Buhari had cut for himself a stiff image of a no-nonsense man. It is an image that was carefully cultivated during his brief 1984/85 draconian convulsions in the rulership of our beguiled nation. Ever since, General Buhari had undergone and indeed survived many mutations in Nigeria’s volcanic political thoroughfare. From his journey to the dungeon under the cunning eyes of the evil genius, General Buhari re-emerged into national limelight once more after rehabilitation by the dark goggles-wearing late maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha. The famed general was placed at the head of the PTF where he performed wonderfully well in the North and controversially in the South.
    Buhari: still dazed by his defeat

In 2003, the maladministration of General Olusegun Obasanjo brought General Buhari once more to national limelight. It was the election of the generals. General Obasanjo flew the PDP flag, General Buhari flew the ANPP flag, while General Ojukwu flew the APGA flag. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo seemed to be taking revenge on hapless Nigerians for not taking to the streets when he was jailed by the dark-goggled general. Although Abacha chastised Nigerians with scorpion, Chief Obasanjo, it appeared, was rescuing Nigerians with hot iron and red pepper. Hence, it was a period of difficult choice for Nigerians. Okadigbo had been cheated out of the ANPP primaries. The Northern establishment-owned ANPP had lured unsuspecting Igbo aspirants to the unattractive ANPP by promising to have zoned the presidency to the South-East, only to do a double turn and throw up one of their own, General Buhari, leaving hoodwinked Igbo aspirants despondent and befuddled. Rochas Okorocha and Okwesilieze Nwodo had to storm out of the party. Okadigbo, the celebrated Oyi of Oyi of oratorical fame, had to make do with the crumbs. Predicating his reading of the political moment, the zeitgeist, on political arithmetic predicated on political sagacity, the vibrant and cerebrally fiery Okadigbo made do with the role of the second fiddle.

Nonetheless, the Okadigboic deputizing of the General Buhari candidacy made his candidature tolerable if not saleable in the South-East. General Buhari had no problems getting his votes from the South-East, though it eventually turned out that INEC and never the people went to the polls. Thus, INEC declared their winners and the people watched by the sidelines. The Oyi of Oyi had to die in no less controversial circumstances as a fallout of the infamous polls.

Bolstered by the sympathy he received in 2003, General Buhari ventured again into the political seas only to find himself tossed mercilessly by the turbulent winds of the ubiquitous PDP amoral machinery. Alhaji Atiku was favoured but it appeared the PDP government was never interested in letting the votes count. The signs were emerging but General Buhari could not see it. Nigerians were already raising questions about the suitability of the Buhari candidacy for the presidency of Nigeria.

The election of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was arguably the worst in the history of Nigeria. Two Northern candidates were grossly short-changed. Of course, not before dealing notable Southerners raw deals at the primaries. Remember the presidential bids of Peter Odili, Donald Duke, Sam Egwu, et al. Surprisingly, despite the massive irregularities that where embedded in the very bone marrow of that election, not a whimper was heard from the North. I repeat, not a whimper was heard from the North. Yeah, not a whimper was heard from the North. The Northern establishment repeatedly appealed to the duo of General Buhari and Alhaji Atiku to drop their legal challenges to the election of President Yar’Adua. But if Alhaji Atiku gave signs of mellowing down, General Buhari maintained a stiff rebuff till the bitter end. The Supreme Court rested their cases in a very controversial pluralist judgment.

At the incapacitation and ultimate demise of Alhaji Yar’Adua, the Northern establishment served the rest of the country notice that they would be more likely to accept a replacement for the late Yar’Adua only if he were of the Northern stock. This gave Dr Jonathan the unenviable record of being the most powerless Vice President in Nigerian history and the most disregarded Acting President in the world at the time of that tragicomedy.

Enter the debate on zoning which was decisively thrashed with the unflattering defeat of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku by President Goodluck Jonathan at the PDP primaries. The statement on zoning was so bold that Mallam Adamu Ciroma, the face of zoning, was trounced by Dr Jonathan even in his home state. Alhaji Atiku was not spared either. However, the core North kept faith with zoning.

The surprising choice of Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly by General Muhammadu Buhari as his vice presidential candidate left many pundits stranded in the wilderness of thought. The thinking in the camp of the General was that a North-West/South-West alliance was cool, not minding that the South-West had the presidency in recent eight uninterrupted years.

Ignore Ndigbo at your own political peril. Dr Goodluck Jonathan assiduously sought alliance with the South-East and the North-Central while reaching out frantically to the rest of the country. General Buhari made frantic efforts but generally not toward the South-East.

Now the South-Easterners are the most evenly geographically distributed citizens in the country. They can be found in reasonable numbers in all states of the federation and Federal Capital Territory. A useful factor in the 25% requirement of the Electoral Act. A fact General Buhari, if aware of its importance, obviously underrated.

This error of judgment upturned political calculations in the camp of those who never noticed. April 16 was the date. From North-East to North-West, Dr Jonathan got his 25%. From North-Central to South-West, Dr Jonathan got his winnings. The significant presence of South-Easterners in Tinubu’s Lagos contributed in tilting the cup of victory in favour of the lucky Goodluck. The result from South-East was the bomb: over 80% victory in favour of Jonathan, over 70% turnout in many of the states.

The moral: ignore the South-East at your political peril.

Ebo wrote in from Lagos.
+2348064641470, ebosocrates@yahoo.com

From Despair To Hope: A Review Of Chioma Enwerem’s AS THE SUN RISES

By Chuks OLUIGBO

Imprint: Owerri: Liu House of Excellence, 2008

As the Sun Rises is a pageant of beautiful and engaging poems that deal with a wide variety of topical issues (moral decadence, political corruption, social injustice) as well as recurrent existential human problems. In 87 pages, and in 45 poems of varying lengths, the poet echoes the voices of other poets, past and present, thus reflecting the collective thoughts of several generations of humans. But she does this so artistically and beautifully, in a style all her own, thereby lending credence to Alexandar Pope’s description of poetry as “What oft was thought but ne’er so well expressed”. The collection illuminates the creative vision associated with good poetry and distils issues concerning the polity with a keen sense of observation and a unique poetic diction.

In “The Miscreants”, for instance, we are confronted with corrupt officials “Twisting words/ Bending rules/ Breaking rules/ Fabricating figures/ Emptying accounts/ Filling up their filled pockets”. We also encounter them again in “Their Last Lap” where “their over-filled pockets” are “Scrambling for space”. Another social ill which captures the poet’s attention is moral decadence. In “Human Garbage”, the poet indicts all segments of society as collaborators in the pervading moral decay: from “Bald-headed, pot-bellied” old men to “Shrunken, wrinkled/ grandmas”; from “Young maidens” who deny their body cover to “Young soldiers” who “Roam every corner/ Exhibiting varied ranks/ of insanity”. All have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God. “Our Mess” also re-echoes the same theme, but it goes beyond that to stress what is known as the first law of motion: action and reaction are equal and opposite. In other words, it re-enacts the motif of “crime and punishment” that is recurrent in works of literature. Hence, “We spit up but our spittle/ Splashes on our face”.

Like Ntiru’s “Pauper”, “Dawn to Dusk” portrays the plight of the poor and down-trodden. The suffering masses in “Dawn to Dusk” toil and sweat on “empty stomachs” and “with little or no pay”, just like the washerwoman in Oswald Mtshali’s “Washerwoman’s Prayer”. ”The Humiliated” re-echoes the thematic preoccupation of Kwesi Brew’s “The Executioner’s Dream”. Here, the blood of the murdered, including aborted babies, from “their secret graves” plead “for vengeance” before the Throne of God. In ”Deep Groaning”too, the poet beckons on man to curb his “unquenchable/ appetite for/ destruction” and save his environment or become ”a lost tribe/ with no homestead”.

In “Long Before They Came” and “Kaduna Massacre”, the poet fulfils the role of the poet as a historian and custodian of the people’s collective memory. “Kaduna Massacre” vividly recreates the incessant religious killings in Northern Nigeria where “flames of fire and smoke” surge “forth from life’s labour/ up, up to the sky” and there are “Heads in the well/ Ears on the streets/ Arms on the lane” The poet also goes further to condemn outright all forms of ambivalence and hypocrisy. The poetic voice in “Wishes”, for instance, laments that: “Your voice talks/ about love to me/ But your eyes/ Taunt me”. “They Ignored Ikoro” bemoans a decayed culture which has meant that “white hair” can no longer “utter/ truth boldly/ in the village square”. ”If” is a call for peace in a world torn apart by strife and hate. The poet invites us to “still hold hands/ And talk peace”.

In “First Rain” and “Harmattan”, the poet joins D.H. Lawrence, Keats, Wordsworth, and other nature poets to admire the serenity of pristine nature. Thus, even though the harmattan’s teeth are “as sharp as/a butcher’s knife”, it still comes “with/ A gift of sweet sound/ Sleep”, just as the first rain makes the spirit grow “momentously”, stretching and heightening “above hills and mountains”.

The poet, like most female writers before her, also explores the place of women in society, but she does not take it to Feminist proportions. While “Woman-Girl” and “A Life of Pain” portray the frustrations of a growing girl-child, “A Woman’s Strength” celebrates her determination to survive amidst “countless regulations”, “dark ancient rules” and “uncountable injustice”. “She strides and topples/on shrubs and twines”, yet she “stands resolute”, like “lilies among thorns”. There is also resilience in “My Tall Dream” where the persona strides on determinedly, though “strewn with thorns and stumps”.

There are poems that mourn the dead, but here, the poet turns mourning into a celebration of life.. In “Tribute to Mary Linda Chika”, the poet argues that what determines a successful life is not length of days, for the addressed in her “brief sojourn/ here/ accomplished much/ More than Methuselah”. Again, to live in the hearts of those we love is not to die. This much is reflected in “Exit: Dedication to Flora Nwapa” where “My dead hope/ Lives again/ When I hear your voice/ Echo still/ In the silent horizon”.

The eternal struggle between darkness and light is re-enacted in “New Moon”. Darkness “ravages the land” until the new moon arrives. Then, like a defeated foe, “Darkness frowns/ And disappears/ As it beholds/ The smiling face/ Of the new moon”.

One quality of a good work of literature is its ability to purge us of the emotions that it arouses rather than leave us stranded in the middle of nowhere. This much the present collection has been able to achieve. The poet does not leave us desolate and hopeless. Against all odds, hope springs up anew and fluorishes. In “A New You”, we read that “A new you/ will sprout/ with the freshness/ of a new day” just as we are promised “A new beginning/ When the seedlings/ Would sprout/ Smiling to heaven” in “A New Dawn”. In “New Moon”, again, the moon brings hope as it comes ”Casting her rays on the land”. In “As the Sun Rises”, which forms the title of the collection, we again see the moon as a symbol of hope. When the moon comes, “She builds up hope rapidly/ Rebuilding and/ Reviving”.

As the Sun Rises then is a successful outing. The poet’s style is enhanced by a wealth of picturesque images created through ample use of figures of speech. The simple verse format of the poems and the relative brevity of the poems that do not deter from their significance and indeed their topicality provide delightful readings for serious critics, scholars as well as simple lovers of poetry. The book renews hope in a world fraught with hopelessness, despair and despondency. Such hope is an absolute precondition if the present human society is to survive into the next half century.

Why Ohakim May Win Imo Guber Race

By Chuks OLUIGBO

Take it or leave it, among all the contenders for the Imo number one seat in the 2011 general elections, Ikedi Godson Ohakim of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, stands the greatest chances of victory, and I say this without an iota of bias. Personally, I do not like the man, neither do I cherish his style of leadership. When Citizen Ikenna Samuelson Iwuoha said in an interview that “Ohakim is ruling Imo as if he is selling drugs in an ABC bus,” I agreed with him totally because what he said was in tandem with my personal observations. In spite of that, however, I maintain that the man’s chances of winning the April 26 guber election remain very high. And this is not about credibility. If it were, Ohakim may not get a mention here. This is about reality. Why do I say this? Just come with me as we take a look at Ohakim’s co-contestants.

Owelle Anayo Rochas Okorocha, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, flag-bearer, is well known in Imo and across Nigeria for his philanthropic gestures, particularly through his Rochas Foundation which has given free education to hundreds (or thousands?) of destitute  children who otherwise would not have had access to secondary education. For this alone, Okorocha is a popular candidate, but he does not seem to have the corresponding structures to win an election. What he has seems to be street popularity, which does not translate into majority votes or outright electoral victory. When Jesus rode on a horse to Jerusalem, he had street popularity. Few days later, he contested an election with Barabbas, a confirmed felon, and he lost to Barabbas. The Jewish elders were on ground to tell their people who to vote for. (I know some readers are already calling me a heretic.) There may be a repeat of that scenario in Imo come Easter Tuesday. Why? Because elections are not won on the streets or on the pages of newspapers. It is about what structures you have put on ground.

Another way of looking at it is to weigh the results of the April 9 National Assembly elections in Imo. Prior to the election, I heard many people of Orlu zone expressing their unalloyed support for Chief Achike Uzoma Udenwa, erstwhile governor of the state who contested the Orlu senatorial seat under the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN. Part of the reasons they gave for this massive support was that since Udenwa was key to the demand for the creation of Orlu (or Njaba) State, he would quickly realise that dream as soon as he got to the senate. At the polls, however, the PDP floored the ACN. On the whole, the ACN in Imo failed to clinch any seat in either the Senate or the House of Representatives. As Imo governor, Udenwa did well for Orlu zone, and the people love him for that. So, if all that support and love did not give Udenwa victory at the NASS polls, in the same way, the love and support of Imo people may not give Okorocha victory at the guber polls. The unfortunate thing is that most of the people who voice this support are not the real voters. The real voters are the papas and mamas in the rural villages who have to be tutored by their sons and daughters, beneficiaries of the Ohakim government, on who to vote for. And they follow these directions religiously. If you say the PDP in Imo rigged the NASS elections, what makes you think they won’t rig the guber?

Senator Ifeanyi Godwin Araraume of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, whom many, even Ohakim himself, thought was a major opposition force, has proved to be nothing but a barking dog without a bite. Now he has lost even the bark. His campaign is very poor. The man lacks the funds to prosecute an election. It would be remembered that Araraume represented his Okigwe Senatorial Zone at the Senate from 1999 to 2007. He left the senate in 2007 and joined the race for the Imo governorship seat under the PDP. The electoral process in Imo then was marred by irregularities, which included the internal PDP crisis. However, an election held, followed by a repeat election, and Ikedi Ohakim, then of Orji Uzor Kalu’s hastily concocted Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA, was declared winner. The ex-Senator headed to court and spent over three years there. At the end, he lost all round: the governorship seat, sympathy, finances, etc. Now that it is time to campaign for votes, he lacks the finances to move forward. He and his ACN are down and out in Imo State.

Then talk of Ikedi Ohakim, the incumbent, many points count for him, (Here again, I reiterate that this is not about credibility.) even if those points reflect the injustice in the system: power of incumbency, grassroots structure, money. On the issue of incumbency, I will again quote elaborately from Steve Osuji’s masterpiece, “Democracy for incumbents”, which adequately captures what I mean. He said: “The incumbent deploys everything at his disposal to beat down any opposition. Then again, does he have things at his disposal? He actually has the world under his feet. The party structure and machinery across board are not only on the incumbent's payroll, they are at his mercy. The state’s treasury is in his keep; the state security apparati are his to deploy. So are the numerous appointees, the civil servants, the network of vigilante groups, name them. In like manner, the judiciary and legislature are within the incumbent’s purview, if not beck and call.... The monstrous muscle of the incumbent is seen flexed in its majesty during interparty electioneering campaign.... How on earth could any contestant begin to match the incumbent in any election, especially in the developing (?) world like Nigeria?.... In this part of the world, the incumbent would win an election one million times if he organised it.” What more do I need to say?

As it is today, Ohakim literally owns all the structures in Imo State: the sitting 305 councillors and 27 LGA chairmen, chairmen and members of the development centres, commissioners, special advisers, senior special assistants, permanent secretaries, heads of parastatals, heads and members of committees, chairmen and members of board, just name them; he appointed them all. Down the line, many other people feed through these Ohakim appointees. These people do not want any Rochas Okorocha rocking their boat, even if he has given free education to the whole world. As such, they will fight to retain their seats, and those who feed from them will vote for Ohakim so that they will not starve. Nigerian politics, for now, is stomach-based, but that’s the subject of another discussion.

Party-wise, Imo is one hundred percent a PDP state. Do I know what I’m saying? Yes, I do. At the grassroots, for that is where state politics is played. The 305 councillorship seats and the 27 local government chairmanship seats in the state are currently occupied by the PDP, no thanks to the charade called August 7, 2010 LG elections in Imo State. That APGA won the Owerri senatorial seat and Ideato and Owerri federal constituencies at the April 9 elections has not changed this equation. Those are Abuja positions that have no much bearing on the true situation at the local level. Meanwhile, supporters of APGA in Imo State now are there for what they can get from Okorocha. Even Chris Anyanwu, the Senator-elect for Owerri zone, is one hundred percent PDP. She only joined APGA because PDP denied her return ticket. In other words, she merely stooped to conquer. At an opportune time, she would rejoin her fold. No doubt about this.

I wanted to skip this, but it also bears mentioning: the issue of federal support. The PDP is not leaving any stone unturned in its efforts to retain all the states it currently controls, and if possible ‘capture’ more. So is the president-elect, Goodluck Jonathan. His utterances during his campaign tour of the states bear eloquent testimony to this. The recent suspension of the Minister of Interior, Emmanuel Iheanacho, for instance, has been linked to allegations of anti-party activities against him. Iheanacho belongs to the Owerri federal constituency where APGA carried the day at the NASS elections. Reportedly, he is suspected to have worked against Kema Chikwe, the PDP senatorial candidate in the zone, with whom he had clashed earlier. For those who think Iheanacho’s suspension had anything to do with the crisis in the North, think again. There is a Director-General for the State Security Service, there is an Inspector General of Police, there is a National Security Adviser, and Iheanacho is none of these. So, why him?

From the foregoing, therefore, I make the following predictions concerning the elections: Orlu zone will be divided between Ohakim and Okorocha, but Ohakim will win. The contest in Okigwe zone will be between Ohakim and Araraume, but Ohakim will win. Okorocha’s votes in Okigwe may turn out to be insignificant. Contestants like Ike C. Ibe and Emeka Nwajiuba may gather few sympathy votes in Okigwe, but that’s how far they can go. The parties they represent do not exist in Imo State. In Owerri zone, there will be a severe struggle between Ohakim and Okorocha. Okorocha’s deputy, Sir Jude Agbaso, is from Owerri zone. And so is Ohakim’s deputy, Prof Viola Onwuliri. Both parties will share the votes in the zone. But there are elements within Owerri zone that are addicted to the zoning formula, which is one of the key points of Ohakim’s campaign. So, the winning edge for Ohakim in Owerri may follow the following reasoning: Orlu has ruled for 8 years, 1999-2007; Okigwe has ruled for 4 years, 2007-2011. If Okigwe is allowed to complete its 8 years via Ohakim’s second tenure, Owerri will take over in 2015, but on the other hand, if Orlu is allowed to take another 4 years, the balance will be upturned; Orlu would have ruled for 12 years, leaving Owerri with nothing, and Owerri may find it hard to get to the Douglas House in the next 16 years.

Finally, there is the power of the PDP rigging machine in Imo State. 

I may be wrong.

Jonathan And The Journey To Aso Rock

By Tolu Ogunlesi

Come with me to 1998. Let’s meet Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, assistant director, Environmental Protection and Pollution Control at the Oil Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission in Port Harcourt, “earning small, small kobo that kept him going” (as his father once told the Guardian in an interview). Seven years later, the civil servant is governor of oil-rich Bayelsa. Five years after that, he is the president of Nigeria. All this happens without him contesting any election on his own.

Now, on May 29, 2011, Mr Jonathan will be sworn in as the fourth democratically elected executive president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He will go into the beckoning epoch clutching a string of firsts: At 53, the youngest civilian president of Nigeria at first swearing-in (Shagari was 54). The first Nigerian vice president to go on to be president. The first Nigerian to rise from deputy governor to governor to vice president to president. (What are the chances of that happening in the wildly unpredictable political system we run in this country?) Nigeria’s first PhD-holding president. Nigeria’s first “Facebook president”. The second most popular head of state alive, on Facebook. The first Nigerian president to grant a campaign interview to a hiphop star. The first Nigerian politician to debate himself in a nationally televised political debate. The first civilian president of Nigeria to come from a minority ethnic group.

Let’s think for a moment about the hurdles the man has had to cross on his way from civil servant to president. First, he survived the deputy governorship. The key word there is ‘survived’. Blessed is the man who had the good sense to call a spade a spade: deputy governors are “spare tyres” in Nigeria. If you doubt that Mr Jonathan ‘survived’ six years of deputy governorship, ask Orji Uzor Kalu’s deputies. Ask Kofo Bucknor Akerele and Femi Pedro. Ask Garba Gadi in Bauchi State. Ask Peremobowei Ebebi, the man who succeeded Jonathan as deputy governor in Bayelsa.

In many cases, the deputy governorship is a terminal illness for a politician’s career. But as fate, or luck, would have it, in Jonathan’s case, the spare tyre bucked the trend and ended up, not as a tool for lynch mobs, but as the steering wheel.

And then he survived a colourless vice presidency. When the Americans, obsessed as they are with list-making, compiled a confidential list of Nigeria’s most influential persons in 2008, a year into his vice presidency, Jonathan’s name was absent. This was barely three years ago.

You only need to see how many ‘godfathers’ have fallen by the wayside (especially on Jonathan’s ‘second missionary journey’ to Aso Rock) to realise that ‘goodluck’ is more than just a name. James Ibori, said to be one of the biggest financial contributors to the Yar’Adua campaign, is today preparing for a long jail term abroad. Ibrahim Babangida, a million times more powerful than Jonathan until a year ago, last week announced his retirement from politics.

Adamu Ciroma is a tired ethnic chauvinist; the final nail in his coffin was the collapse of his consensus candidacy project. Bode George is an ex-convict. PDP chieftain, Tony Anenih’s state is in the hands of the ACN. Olusegun Obasanjo’s state will soon be. Abubakar Atiku couldn’t even deliver his own state during the PDP primaries. Lamidi Adedibu is three years dead.

I think we may safely conclude that Mr Jonathan could, if he so chooses, easily become ‘Godfatherless Jonathan’. I am indeed very optimistic about the future of Nigeria under a Jonathan presidency. Last August, I said Mr Jonathan was “a breath of fresh air”. I was referring to his social networking strategy. (I’d like to believe that was what inspired the “breath of fresh air” campaign slogan of the president)

Today, I will stretch my claim further, and declare that Mr Jonathan is potentially a breath of fresh air to the way presidential leadership is conducted in Africa. I think we are looking at the man destined to, not only tackle long-standing problems like power supply and poverty, but also bring far-reaching reform to Africa’s largest and most messed-up political party, the PDP.

He is not a perfect man. Certainly not. He hasn’t got Bill Clinton’s charm or Barack Obama’s speaking skills or Mr Obasanjo’s sense of humour. But he offers something else: an endearing calmness, a modesty that is rare with Nigeria’s ‘Big Men’, and a seemingly sincere desire to engage with the people he’s ruling.

The task ahead is daunting. I do not envy the son of a canoe-carver who’s now sitting in a ‘canoe’ atop one of the most tumultuous waters in the world — the presidency of that bundle of contradictions called Nigeria. I, however, wholeheartedly wish him Godspeed. I will repeat the words with which I ended my column, “Goodluck, Goodwill and Goodsense”, published almost exactly a year ago (April 19, 2010):

“Yesterday you were Goodluck Jonathan. Today you are Goodwill Jonathan. Now you must strive to be Goodsense Jonathan, in whose hands the destiny of a nation lies.”

So help him God. Amen.

After Jega, What Next?

By Chuks OLUIGBO

The just concluded 2011 general elections in Nigeria no doubt recorded some commendable successes. One thing that was obviously missing among Nigerians was the usual I-don’t-care attitude that had characterised previous elections in the country. Especially since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the Nigerian electorate have been known for a certain lackadaisical, nonchalant attitude towards politics, a certain disenchantment with, or indifference to the electoral process occasioned perhaps by their perceived notion that their votes didn’t matter.

Prior to this time, it was not uncommon to hear many Nigerians make such comments as “Why should I bother myself registering or voting? My vote doesn’t count. Whether I vote or not, they will still rig themselves into power.” Such attitude disappeared in the 2011 elections. This time around, there seemed to have been a new consciousness, a new orientation, a re-awakening, a new zeal among Nigerians, old and young alike, to be part of the change process. The level of awareness and participation among Nigerians was a total departure from what it used to be; same for the interest shown. This is quite commendable. It is a welcome trend that should be consolidated upon.

President Goodluck Jonathan too deserves commendation for initiating the present process. Shortly after he was sworn-in as president following the death of former President Umar Musa Yar’Adua in May 2010, he expressed his commitment to a free, fair and credible electoral process in Nigeria. The forum was the maiden edition of the presidential media chat anchored by Gbenga Aruleba. While answering a question that bothered on the appointment of Prof Attahiru Jega as the new chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, President Jonathan said: “Because our elections have been usually controversial, most other societies believe that Nigeria is a leading country in Africa and we must conduct clean elections to give our leaders credibility and acceptability globally…. I have said it severally, when you travel out some officers that come to discuss with you, some as envoys of presidents of other countries, sometimes officers that are quite low, they raise the issues of elections, and I feel very humiliated, really, and I promised myself that if I’m in a position to conduct elections in this country, no other Nigerian president will experience that embarrassment; that at the end of the elections, people lower than you who ordinarily are not supposed to talk to you will raise issues of elections. It’s annoying. I feel bitter.... Like I did mention at other forums, whether I will run or not is immaterial in terms of the elections we are going to conduct in 2011. The elections in 2011 must be free and fair, and the votes of Nigerians must count.” And he re-echoed the same in many other forums across Nigeria.

Jega’s was one appointment that was widely applauded by Nigerians across board, and it would mark the beginning of a change process that would permeate INEC as well as the entire electoral process in the country.

No doubt, Prof Jega has lived up to the expectations of Nigerians. In spite of the earlier hitches that led to the postponement of the first batch of elections, the National Assembly elections, earlier scheduled for April 2, the 2011 general elections have so far been generally acclaimed as free, fair, transparent, and credible. That is not to say that it was a hundred percent success. No, there were certainly irregularities here and there. We expect aggrieved parties to seek redress at the courts.

Also commendable is the level of independence given to the electoral body, INEC. For the first time since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule, the so-called power of incumbency was not really seen to be at play. Especially at the presidential poll, the incumbent became just a mere observer in the process, like every other Nigerian, like his fellow contestants. This was a clear break from the scenario that played out in 2003 and 2007 when President Olusegun Obasanjo played the role of the electoral umpire from behind the scene and his overbearing image could be seen looming large over the then INEC chairmen, Dr Guobadia (2003) and Prof Iwu (2007). For once, the term ‘independent’ prefixed to the former National Electoral Commission, NEC, by Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar in 1998 has become practical rather than mere nomenclature. Future presidents of Nigeria, whether they are re-contesting or not, are expected to toe this path of honour and steer clear of the electoral process, allowing INEC free hand to do its job.

Also, the ouster of the incumbent governor of Imo State, Ikedi Ohakim, by the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA's Owelle Rochas Okorocha, a hitherto inconceivable feat, was an indication that in the 2011 elections, the people truly spoke through the ballot box and that people's votes actually counted.

On the other hand, however, there is need to take another look at the incumbency factor and see what can be done. In the light of this, I agree with Steve Osuji who opined in “Democracy for incumbents” thus: “It must be possible to enthrone an acting president, governor, and even suspend the legislative chambers so that all contestants can be on an even keel. As it is, contesting against a sitting president or governor is like contesting against the entire country or state, or even the legislative chambers, as the case may be.”

One other commendable thing in these elections was the use of high profile academics as collation officers. Especially at the presidential polls, all the collation officers across the 36 states and the FCT were either former Vice-Chancellors, serving Vice-Chancellors, or seasoned professors of high repute and pedigree, men and women of integrity who have a name to protect; people who understand the saying that ‘a good name is better than riches’; highly principled persons who cannot easily be compromised. Undoubtedly, this was reflected in the quality of the collation process, and the transparency and finesse with which everything was handled. The argument being made by some analysts that Jega should not have concentrated on academics alone since there were men and women of integrity in other professions makes no sense to me. Jega is from the academic world; it was only natural for him to tap from his immediate constituency.

Looking back at it, it is easy to say that Nigerian politics has moved a step forward. It is no longer business as usual. To use the words of Harold Macmillan, one time British Prime Minister, ‘a wind of change’ has blown across Nigeria. And as President Jonathan himself said when he cast his vote at his Otueke-Ogbia polling booth on Saturday, April 16, these elections mark “a new dawn in our political evolution”.

But there are disturbing questions. As I have argued elsewhere, “We need strong institutions. But first, we need strong persons to build them, and afterwards, strong persons to keep them running.” Jega for sure is a strong man, and he has succeeded in conducting credible elections in Nigeria, but has he succeeded in instituting a strong electoral body? Has INEC become a stronger institution? Will the present successes recorded by INEC be sustainable, or will they be a one-off? Will INEC relapse into its former corrupt self after Jega, or will the person who succeeds Jega be as strong and carry on and improve on what Jega has achieved? Will the gains of the 2011 elections be consolidated upon, or will they be allowed to slip through our fingers? Answers to these questions will determine whether Jega's appointment was or was not a waste of time after all...

A Fixed Date For Easter Now A Possibility, Says Researcher

By Nia Williams | Reuters – Mon, 18 Apr, 2011

The Last Supper took place on a Wednesday -- a day earlier than thought -- and a date for Easter can now be fixed, according to a Cambridge University scientist aiming to solve one of the Bible's most enduring contradictions.

Christians have marked Jesus' final meal on Maundy Thursday for centuries but thanks to the rediscovery of an ancient Jewish calendar, Professor Colin Humphreys suggests another interpretation.

"I was intrigued by Biblical stories of the final week of Jesus in which no one can find any mention of Wednesday. It's called the missing day," Humphreys told Reuters. "But that seemed so unlikely: after all Jesus was a very busy man."

His findings help explain a puzzling inconsistency between the Gospels of Matthew, Mark and Luke, who said the Last Supper coincided with Passover and John, who said the meal took place before the Jewish holy day commemorating the Exodus from Egypt.

Humphreys' research suggests Jesus, and Matthew, Mark and Luke, were using the Pre-Exilic Calendar, which dated from the time of Moses and counted the first day of the new month from the end of the old lunar cycle, while John was referring to the official Jewish calendar of the day.

"It was an extremely curious mistake for anyone to make because for Jewish people Passover was such an important meal," said Humphreys, a metallurgist and materials scientist and a Christian.

"The contradictions have been known for a long time but not been talked about by the general public very much. I am using science and the Bible hand in hand to solve this question and showing the Gospels are actually agreeing, just using different calendars."

If the Passover meal and the Last Supper did take place on a Wednesday it would help explain how the large number of events that the Gospels record between the Last Supper and the Crucifixion were able to take place.

With the help of an astronomer, Humphreys reconstructed the Pre-Exilic calendar and placed Passover in the year AD 33, widely accepted as the year of Jesus' crucifixion, on Wednesday April 1.

That means if modern Christians wished to ascribe a date for Easter based on Humphreys' calculations, which he has been mulling over since 1983, Easter Day would fall on the first Sunday in April.

(Editing by Steve Addison)

Democracy For Incumbents

By Steve OSUJI

OKAY, let's take that back. It really isn't a democracy we are practising around here, is it? In the pure sense of it, what we have in Nigeria is not a democracy, it could be said that we have a verisimilitude of democracy, an ersatz democracy or a make believe democracy. We are actually practising every other kind of governance but democracy.

But for the purpose of this piece, let's label what we have in Nigeria today incumbentocracy. An awkward appellation, but it serves the purpose. Why has it not occurred to us all these years that we have a winner takes all democracy, a system in which the man at the helm holds all the aces and determines our destiny whole and entire.

Let us boil it down to the current situation. Did any incumbent governor lose his return bid? Did any outgoing governor fail to deliver his protégé to replace him (overlook the Ogun aberration)? Is President Goodluck Jonathan, being the incumbent, not the automatic front runner, winning endorsements from left, right and centre? The oft-stated fact that Nigeria is ruled by merely the president, the 36 state governors and perhaps five other persons is seen in bold relief during election period like we are now.

Starting with the congress to the primaries, since the incumbent is the leader of his party, it becomes incumbent on him, so to speak, to direct the affairs of the party and win re-election ticket by any means possible. It would seem rather humiliating, if not impolitic to have an incumbent lose a return ticket.

Secondly, right from the outset, the incumbent seems to have the right of first refusal. Of course, no Nigerian incumbent dreams of stepping down. If he had any dreams at all, it would be to stay on to third, fourth and even indefinite terms. And right from this rudimentary level, the incumbent deploys everything at his disposal to beat down any opposition. Then again, does he have things at his disposal? He actually has the world under his feet. The party structure and machinery across board are not only on the incumbent's payroll, they are at his mercy. The state's treasury is in his keep; the state security apparati are his to deploy. So are the numerous appointees, the civil servants, the network of vigilante groups, name them. In like manner, the judiciary and legislature are within the incumbent's purview, if not beck and call.

The monstrous muscle of the incumbent is seen flexed in its majesty during interparty electioneering campaign. Whoever made our rules of engagement in elections must be thinking with his lower back. How on earth could any contestant begin to match the incumbent in any election especially in the developing (?) world like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Ivory Coast, etc. In this part of the world, the incumbent would win an election one million times if he organised it. Ask Robert Mugabe, Laurent Gbagbo, Yoweri Museveni. The reasons are glaring for all to see yet nobody has bothered to tinker with the rules. Consider the ongoing electioneering in Nigeria. The president, like any incumbent governor, has the state treasury at his disposal. He lives in official apartments maintained by the state; he runs official vehicles and jets, he burns official fuels, he co-opts officials and appointees of government in his campaign team; he uses the entire state machinery as the needs arise, without let or hindrance.

Just as the incumbent junkets freely on electioneering, so does his spouse, all at the tax payers’ expense. But most notable is the hijack of the public space by incumbents to the detriment of State media (radio, television, print and online) immediately become the sole property of the man with power. Even when no express directive is given to bar opponent's campaign materials, the managers of such state owned media houses simply obey their animal survival instincts and raise barriers against candidates of opposing parties.

Therefore, every state radio and television station is like no go area for opposing parties. Campaign grounds too are sources of trouble. While incumbents have unfettered access, opponents find it difficult to make use of even open fields without being harassed. At the national level too where there are still some modicum checks by regulatory bodies, both coverage and advert placements in national television and radio are clearly skewed in favour of opponents. A cursory review of the Nigeria Television Authority's coverage of the various parties' campaigns on prime time network news at 9.00p.m shows that without fail, the incumbent's campaign reports are almost always aired first. Even his adverts are given priority.

And notably, while the incumbent president's adverts are numerous and of all shades (never mind that they are purportedly sponsored by different people), the opponents have so few. Obviously, the opponents cannot afford so many of NTA's slots which is a minimum of half a million naira each. All these must take our minds back to the need to review the Electoral Act and even the Constitution. The contest for the votes of the electorate is too skewed in favour of the incumbent. It really must take an earthquake for an opponent to defeat an incumbent under the current situation.

It must be possible to enthrone an acting president, governor and even suspend the legislative chambers so that all contestants can be on an even keel. As it is, contesting against a sitting president or governor is like contesting against the entire country or state or even the legislative chambers as the case may be.

The argument may well be that the incumbency syndrome is prevalent all over the world, but in more ordered places, there are well developed institutions to check abuses by the incumbent. We must continue to adjust our democratic system to suit our peculiar conditions. This is the way to the future lest we keep having democracy of incumbents by incumbents and for…

*Osuji writes from Owerri, Nigeria.

A Sacrifice Of Words At The Mbari Shrine

A review of AJA MBARI: AN ANTHOLOGY OF POEMS edited by Ukachi Wachuku and Innocent Enyinnaya: Owerri: Cel-Bez Publishing Co. Ltd., 2010

By Chuks OLUIGBO

The 110-page anthology, Aja Mbari, features a total of 74 poems from 16 different poets. Essentially, it explores various themes and subject matters representative of the daily cosmopolitan worries of an average Nigerian, nay African youth as well as the concordant and discordant voices we encounter in our everyday lives.

The lead title, Nnenna Ihebom’s “Aja Mbari”, takes the form of Igbo traditional sacrifice: “Like our ancestors before us…/We come with our sacrifice…/May this sacrifice be acceptable/Consumed and savoured/Without remnant…/In this place of sacrifice”. One cannot help but add “Iseeee!” to that. The poem indicates that the spirit of sacrifice is still very much alive. But not the same with Chidozie Chukwubuike’s “Rumble from the rubble” where the gods make angry protests to humans to re-awaken the ancient spirit of sacrifice because “The drums no longer pound/And no more the ritual dance/To unveil Mbari offering”. Why? Because “Mbari has gone to church”. 

In Chuks Oluigbo’s “To a dying god”, unlike in “Rumble from the rubble”, the persona accepts the blame for discontinuing the sacrificial offering and begs the angry gods to hold their anger. But the gods are also to blame for they “no longer consume holocausts offered to them”. The situation is so bad that the persona laments: “Soon the remains of a once powerful deity/May be rotting in some foreign museum”. Sylvester Nwokedi’s “Jesus of Asaba” and “Hail Ojife!” are also poems of sacrifice, where Eyitu, the virgin daughter of Ojife, sacrifices herself to save Asaba people from dying of thirst. 

There are poems that rise against political oppression. Emeka Njoku’s “Ravished Homestead” laments that Nigeria is “damned to eternal servitude to bloated vultures”. Jonas Ahamefula’s “The Hot Seat” calls the seat of power “The selfish throne/Of selfish rulers”, while Chukwuma Ibezute’s “Agony” paints a vivid picture of the insensitivity of the rulers to the plight of the ruled, especially civil servants who, “to and fro, walk/With empty stomachs/Talking, grumbling, murmuring” while “politicians hold ball”. In Chukwubuike’s “The Date”, the poetic voice prophesies that in time, conscience, “The superintendent of all truths”, shall “pronounce judgment/On the plunderers of our heritage”. In the same vein, Chuks Oluigbo’s “June 12”, which derives its title from the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, states that “all who acquiesced/to the massacre of Truth/shall be gulped in the infernal wombs/of this reigning night”. No escape route for all political oppressors.

Abah Ikwue’s “Black Afternoon” captures in a caricature manner the excesses of the Nigerian Police, just as Chinweuba Egbuchulam’s “How Did We Get Here?” capture the experience of a kidnap victim. Ikenna Ebuenyi’s “African Pikin” is a touching revelation of the fate of the African child in the face of poverty, hunger and endless wars. The African child lives in a “chain of woes”. His trademarks: “nakedness, overt potbelly, hungry discontented look”, etc.

The vexed Niger Delta Question also captures attention in Onyeka Anuforo’s “Niger Hawk and Delta Chicken” where the plunderer boasts: “Your blood-like oil lubricates/The structure of my body”. Other poems in this category are Ihebom’s “Delta Debacle” and Chukwubuike’s “The Tapper and Our Wine”. Emeka Njoku’s “Footfalls” and “Nightingale”, Sylvester Nwokedi’s “Ifunanya”, Pascal Umekwe’s “Disclosure” and “You and Me”, Chinweuba Egbuchulam’s “Memories of You”, and Chioma Enwerem’s “If” centre on the theme of love, while Ihebom’s “Wordless Diction” and “The Wind” and Chioma Enwerem’s “Harmattan” and “A New Dawn” are nature poems. Chukwuebuka’s Nwoye’s “This World” and Henry Chidubem’s “My Condolences”, “Red Marble Petals”, and “The Poet Nags” are full of philosophical insights, just as “They Can’t Be Like Him” celebrate the virtues of Jesus Christ “Who defeated death and/Opened the gate of heaven/For all men to go in”. Chinenye Nwaogu’s “The Supreme Watchman” also exalts God who is “A supreme valiant immortal”.

All in all, it is evident that Aja Mbari is not only a showpiece that displays the colours and contours, warring and workings of young creative minds of this generation; it is also an offering at the shrine of creativity: a true sacrifice of words. It is hoped that the insightful reader will hear voices, see pictures, smell sweet scents and feel love’s caresses as he leafs through the pages pulsating with fresh images, vibrant zest and noble ideas.