Friday, October 18, 2013

Why PDP may reclaim Imo in 2015


By CHUKS OLUIGBO

Between 1979 and 1983 when Sam Onunaka Mbakwe ruled Imo State, Imo people learnt the hard way that in our kind of politics, it pays to be in the same party with the government at the centre. For those four excruciating years, Mbakwe, as yet the best governor to have ruled the state, had earned himself the sobriquet “The Weeping Governor” because of his importunate but largely unheeded yells to the Shehu Shagari-led central government to extend a hand of help to the state. In spite of Mbakwe’s sterling efforts in the state, not much came to Imo from the FG in terms of developmental assistance. Reason: Imo was under the control of Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) while the Federal Government was controlled by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

Following that experience, therefore, Imo people seemed to have come to an agreement to always follow the party at the centre. So, when in 1999 Nigeria returned to civil rule, the state naturally joined the largest party in the country, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), whose only prominent figure then was Ezekiel Izuogu who became its guber candidate, was largely inconsequential in the state. The then All People’s Party (latter-day All Nigeria People’s Party and now part of the All Progressives Congress) barely managed to win a few local councils and some seats in the state House of Assembly.

By the time of the 2003 general elections, Imo had become 100 percent PDP, giving Achike Udenwa, the then governor, a smooth ride back to Douglas House. That situation has remained largely unchanged, and remains so even now, in spite of the fact of the ruling governor being in a different party.

Internal crisis hit Imo PDP prior to the 2007 elections, which led the party to declare that it had no candidate in the governorship election. In spite of that apparent predicament, however, it was clear, as events unfolded, that PDP was still in charge; that Ikedi Ohakim’s movement from PDP to Orji Uzor Kalu’s hastily-concocted Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) and his eventual emergence as the state governor in the elections were all part of the grand ploy by the PDP to retain power through other means. This became glaring when Ohakim returned to PDP in 2009, a move which pitted him against Kalu. Of course, many Imo people would later confess that they never voted for PPA in that election.

The crisis in Imo PDP did not go away after the elections. Rather, Ohakim’s return to the party further aggravated its fractious state. From 2009 up to the time of the 2011 elections, the battle for the soul of Imo PDP assumed alarming proportions. The battle was fought on all fronts, with Ifeanyi Araraume, the PDP guber candidate in 2007 who claimed to have been deprived of his well-deserved victory, joining forces with his avowed enemy, Udenwa, to fight a common enemy. Araraume’s Destiny Organisation and Udenwa’s Redemption Group allied against Ohakim’s New Face Organisation – and it was speculated that Okorocha’s Agenda Group also joined the Alliance camp because Okorocha seemed closer to them than he was to the NFO.

The situation worsened when Ohakim hijacked the August 2010 local council elections in the state by imposing his hand-picked candidates against the wishes of the majority. Although the PDP won the election 100 percent, the discontent it generated stayed with the party, leading to mass exodus until, coupled with Ohakim’s numerous other misadventures, the party was toppled in the 2011 elections which brought Rochas Okorocha to power.

Okorocha, therefore, rode on the back of the people’s disenchantment with the then Governor Ohakim. It was not that the people had deserted the PDP. No, they simply voted the candidate of their choice, not the party. The votes in the 2011 election were not necessarily against the PDP but against the person of Ohakim – in favour of the person of Okorocha and not APGA per se. That was why President Goodluck Jonathan won massively in Imo and PDP retained majority of the seats in the state assembly in 2011, notwithstanding.

The death of APGA
In spite of Okorocha coming to power on the APGA platform, it was clear, even before his departure to join APC, that APGA was yet to have a stronghold in the state. That some members of the state House of Assembly cross-carpeted to APGA was a matter of exigency. They needed to be seen to be in consonance with their governor.

When he rode on the back of APGA, Okorocha called on Imolites and Ndigbo to join the party which he said was a distinct political party that the Igbo passionately believed in and followed like a religion. “All Igbo should join APGA for us to be identified, it is our culture. Every Igbo man is APGA before any other party,” he had said.

Barely two years into his tenure, however, Okorocha has not only joined the newly-formed APC but has also condemned APGA and declared it dead in the state.

Indeed, there is every reason to suppose that APGA may be practically dead in Imo, though some loyal party members still claim their party is intact. Since his younger brother and ex-deputy governor, Jude Agbaso, was disgraced out of office by the Okorocha government, Martin Agbaso, the strongman of APGA in the state, has migrated to political Siberia. He appears to still be licking the wounds he inflicted on himself via his association with Okorocha.

APC’s fate
But even the APC has no foothold in Imo. “APC is not trusted by Imolites. Imo people see it as a party of reactionary politicians interested only in power, e.g., Rochas Okorocha, Achike Udenwa, and Osita Izunaso,” said an analyst who does not want his name in print, adding that for now, Ifeanyi Araraume is standing aloof, although his body language shows he might return to the PDP.

As for the legislators who seem confused at this point, the analyst said they may not be willing to join the APC. Their likeliest move, therefore, would be to return to their original fold, PDP.

Meanwhile, a major crack has been reported in Imo APC, barely a month after the inauguration of its harmonisation committee. This is a fallout of Governor Okorocha’s recent nomination and appointment of commissioners and members of the state executive council which, reportedly, did not include any member of Udenwa’s group.

Some top members of the APC loyal to Udenwa were reported as saying the release of names of commissioners by Okorocha was an indication that they would not work with him in the party. They say the admission of Okorocha into the party had created some level of mistrust within the party ranks because, according to them, Okorocha had refused to allow any member of the ACN to occupy any position in the interim party executive. It was not until they took an internal battle to his doorsteps that he conceded the position of interim secretary to their camp, which is now held by Lambert Iheanacho, a captain.

They also allege that the governor would unilaterally appoint only members of his Agenda structure as interim excos of the party at the ward and local government levels, regretting that Okorocha’s admission into APC was a political miscalculation. They also claim Okorocha’s greedy attitude was the reason no prominent politician in the state has joined APC since its registration. “With this kind of attitude, we can’t allow him to have his way in 2015. We’ll present a credible governorship candidate to Imolites,” the aggrieved APC members were quoted as saying.

The Okorocha factor
Few months ago, Viola Onwuliri, minister of state for foreign affairs, described Okorocha as a rolling stone that gathers no moss and a man “in pursuit of personal vainglory”, saying the governor cannot be trusted in any venture.

Indeed, watchers of Okorocha’s style of politics have said his vacillations may cost him dearly in 2015. Already, analysts are saying that the governor’s rating among Imo people has dropped considerably as he no longer enjoys the kind of massive support that brought him to power in 2011. They point to a litany of sins which include his sacking of the 10,000 graduates employed in the state civil service by his predecessor, his shabby treatment of duly elected local government chairmen and councillors, the recent so-called ‘Abortion Law’ which drew the ire of the Christian faithful in the state, among others.

PDP’s resurgence
In spite of the earthquakes that have hit Imo PDP these past years, there are indications that the crisis in the party has been fully resolved, with every member now on the same page. The party is said to be waxing strong under the leadership of Eze Duruiheoma (SAN) as chairman and George Egu as secretary.

As an analyst put it, “PDP is intact, very strong, very much on ground in Imo. The pre-2011 implosion caused by Ohakim’s imposition of candidates in the 2010 LG elections has been resolved. PDP is 100 percent united. Ward tours are currently ongoing. Reconciliation meetings are being held across board spearheaded by PDP Reconciliation and Mobilisation Committee which has Jerry Chukwueke as chairman.”

Going by these facts, PDP seems to be the only party in the state with a formidable structure. As such, the party’s prospects in 2015 look bright. There are also predictions that all those politicians who were frustrated out of the party may return – even Okorocha himself. If this happens, it will be a plus for the PDP.

However, the party’s fate in 2015 may eventually be determined by the credibility of the candidate it presents to Imolites. Recent experience has shown that when faced with a choice between party affiliation and a credible candidate, the people may choose the latter.

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