The South-East And 2015 Presidency: The Hopefuls, The Stakes

In spite of seeming daunting odds, the South-East geopolitical zone has begun in earnest to do its groundwork as well as shop from within itself for President Jonathan’s successor ahead of 2015

By Odinaka ANUDU and Chinedu OPARA

Additional reports by Chuks OLUIGBO

The 2011 general elections in Nigeria have long become history and for the common man on the street, it is goodbye to elections until 2015. Now is the time to gleefully look up to those that received the people’s mandate at the April polls to live up to their campaign promises. But not so for the politician. For the politician, the end of an electioneering period does not mark an end to politicking. Rather, it is time for fresh plots and strategies to either consolidate for a second term or win a fresh mandate. It provides political actors enough latitude to go back to the drawing board to churn fresh ideas and plot new road maps for the next round of elections. 

As it is, strong indications are emerging by the day that the race to win political offices at both the state and national levels in the next four years have started in earnest across the nation. For Nigeria’s number one position, it could safely be argued that the race began even before President Goodluck Jonathan clinched victory at the April 16, 2011 election. Prior to the elections, leaders of various geopolitical zones of Nigeria, particularly the South-East and the North, were heard making unequivocal public declarations to the effect that it would be their turn to rule the nation when President Jonathan concludes his term of office in 2015. Now that Jonathan has mounted the saddle, it is countdown to 2015 for serious-minded contenders. The South-East in particular is leaving no stone on top of another as the zone has begun in earnest to shop for Jonathan’s possible successor from within their stock.

The South-East region, which has cried of marginalization since the end of the Nigerian/Biafran Civil War, has since Nigeria’s return to civil rule in 1999 been clamouring for occupancy of the Aso Rock Villa, Nigeria’s seat of power. The position of the South-East is predicated on the fact that the region, which once formed one leg of the tripod on which the nation stood, has for a long time been sidelined in the scheme of things at the centre. Apart from Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe who was a mere ceremonial Governor-General during the First Republic, and General Johnson Umunnakwe Aguiyi-Ironsi who ruled Nigeria for barely five months and was slain in the counter coup of July 29, 1966, no other person from the zone has had a shot at the presidency. Dr. Alex Ekwueme who got closer to the presidency in the Second Republic between 1979 and 1983 only played second fiddle to Alhaji Shehu Shagari, a Northerner. And so the zone has continued to cry disconsolately over its second class status in the scheme of things in the country.

Before the 2003 elections that saw President Olusegun Obasanjo winning a second term of office, the South-East had issued statements through the apex pan-Igbo socio-cultural organization, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, as well as other Igbo groups that Nigeria’s presidency in 2003 must be left to the zone. But that was never to be. A similar situation replicated itself in 2007. And so, in the build-up to the 2011 elections, virtually all the key contenders for Nigeria’s number one position played politics out of it. Goodluck Jonathan, Atiku Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida were said to have given their word that they would run for a single term of four years and hand over to a South-Easterner in 2015. Babangida was specifically quoted as saying that he would run the office of president, if voted in, for only four years and then work towards the emergence of a South-Easterner to succeed him in 2015. All that may have become history now. But for the South-East, it is the presidency in 2015 or nothing.

Against the backdrop of this now-or-never stance of the zone, the key question is: who will go for the zone? Opinions are varied, but respondents point to five likely candidates who they think could fly the flag of the South-East and succeed Goodluck Jonathan in Aso Rock come 2015. Top on the list is Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, ex-Senate President and currently Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF. Born on February 19, 1960, Chief Anyim Pius Anyim, a deacon in his local church, was elected Senator to represent Ebonyi South senatorial district on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in 1999. Subsequently, due to the acrimony and parsimony that attended the Fourth Republic Senate, which eventually led to a series of infamous and controversial impeachments, Anyim became the Senate President in August 2000, with the firm resolve to put paid to the wrong impression that the South-East is a crises-ridden region inhabited by cantankerous people who place self-aggrandizement before the virtues of rectitude, honour and self-control. Unlike his predecessors, Anyim was able to gird his loins and acts, at least at the national level. It is on record that the leadership of the Senate under Anyim almost threw out the repressive quasi-militia led by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, save for the intervention of some powerful elements in the country at the time and some, like Chief Arthur Nzeribe, who would not live to see that happen.

Anyim Pius Anyim

Many feel that apart from stabilising the Senate, Anyim’s composure, maturity and carriage at the time he was the Senate helmsman send positive signals on his personality. These eulogies are coming in spite of the fact that Anyim was barely forty at that time. Perhaps what endeared him to many in the country was his stance on second term bid. Anyim had in August 2002 criticized elected officers who had an eye on the second term, and to make bold his stance, he refused to contest during the 2003 elections, an attribute which, according to Chief Anayo Umenwa, is rare in Nigerian politicians. Moreover, his taciturnity when the government of Sam Egwu demolished his house in Abakiliki remains indelible in the minds of many.

Anyim has also been praised for exhibiting extra-ordinary courage, especially during the period of late President Yar’Adua’s ill-health and the constitutional debates that followed. Speaking from Bulgaria, Stanley Ezeokweka said: “We cannot forget in a hurry how he led about 41 elders to the Senate to persuade them to make Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan acting president. This was at a time when the elders of the South-East region were mute and unable to fight against the wiles of a few during the time the health status of late Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua was in an uncertain state.” That singular move, some believe, was why Jonathan preferred him to Prof Uzodimma Nwala, Chief Ojo Maduekwe and others nominated for the post of SGF, though many others feel his appointment was the handiwork of Ohanaeze Ndigbo. 

Portraying Anyim’s acceptability in the South-East region, Chief Chekwas Okorie, chairman of a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, addressed him in the following words: “You are eminently qualified for this crucial appointment.  Your appointment is also historic in the sense that you are the first Igbo person since the history of Nigeria as a sovereign state to occupy the office of the SGF.” Also, Olisa Metu, vice-chairman of PDP, South-East, averred that “We (the Igbo) see the appointment of Senator Anyim as the SGF as a product of merit, product of our generation and democracy”. In fact, all the governors in the region, traditional rulers and prominent citizens of the South-East turf, had one or two good words for and about Anyim, which goes a long way to show his level of acceptance in the region. Nationally too, many believe that Anyim’s peaceful and accommodating tenure endeared him to Northerners who see in him level-headedness, sagacity and maturity.

On the other hand, however, many respondents could not forget the terror-like regime that ensued in Ebonyi State between 2001 and 2003 when a war raged between Anyim and the then governor of the state, Dr Sam Egwu. Indeed, our findings reveal that during that time, politics in Ebonyi degenerated to fisticuffs between the ‘Abuja group’ and the ‘home group’. While Senator Anyim, Senator Sylvanus Ngele (then Senate Committee chairman on Army), late Senator Vincent Usulor (then Senate Committee chairman on Police Affairs), House of Representatives members from the state, and ten out of the thirteen local government chairmen at that time were members of the Abuja group, Governor Sam Egwu, members of his cabinet and all House of Assembly members, then led by Rt. Hon Julius Ucha (ex-Senator and gubernatorial aspirant in the 2011 elections under the aegis of All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP) and three local government chairmen were members of the home group.

But this, to many, does not vitiate the fact that Anyim has the prerequisite qualities to garner the support of the region as well as those of the South-South, South-West and at least two out of the three regions in the North.

Closely coming behind Senator Anyim in the order of preference is Owelle Rochas Anayo Okorocha, the present governor of Imo State, who is popularly called ‘Man of the Moment’ due to his hard-fought victory against ex-Governor Ikedi Ohakim at the April 2011 guber polls in Imo State. Aged 49, Okorocha hails from Ogboko, Ideato South LGA of Imo State. He is a well-known name in the South-East due to his philanthropy and penchant for entering into battles with his superiors and those who seem mightier. Through his Rochas Foundation, he has provided free and compulsory education to thousands of people across Nigeria, from North to South. As the governor of his home state, he has extended this benevolence to all primary and secondary school students in Imo State, thereby prompting people from other states to rush their children to the state.

Rochas Okorocha

A well experienced political craftsman, Okorocha’s victory endeared him to many in the country who have now seen him as a role model to upcoming politicians and youths who are easily moved by the vagaries of life. His positions as a founding member of the PDP in Imo State, gubernatorial aspirant in 1999, presidential aspirant for ANPP in 2003, founder of Action Alliance in 2005, special adviser to President Obasanjo on inter-party affairs, chairmanship aspirant for PDP in 2007 and presidential aspirant of the PDP in 2007 have made the majority tip him as the likely Igbo consensus candidate. Many who watched the 2007 PDP presidential primaries where Okorocha came second behind late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua cannot stop thinking that Okorocha almost became president.

Furthermore, his goodwill to pensioners in his state, among other good gestures, keeps increasing his popularity in the South-East. Wilson Ugwuma captures his chances thus: “He is almost half Igbo, half Hausa. So, he will not have any problem with acceptability in the North, as many of his friends and associates are Northerners”. Given this position, it is easier to think that the South-South and the South-West may find it easy to accept him because the South-East supported them when they needed their help in 1999, 2003 and 2011.

However, the fear is that Okorocha has been a part of the old order. Some express the fear that his statements during the infamous Obasanjo’s third term saga smacked of inconsistencies. For instance, it was reported that he said that third term bid was not Obasanjo’s idea but the governors. Some others also feel that he needs to be tested properly as politicians are like the Chinese that look alike. Their fear, as expressed by Nwoke Anyanwu, an Imo citizen, is that he was a part of the Imo PDP and thus should be given enough time to see if he will sustain his current programmes. Others too who see him as having had his eyes at the presidency express worry that he may finally decide to run for the second tenure if the 6-year single term does not get the approval of the two-thirds majority of the National Assembly. Some are also worried that Okorocha may need to jump ship, that is, leave his APGA for, say, PDP, if he wants to gain currency among different regions. This is so because other ethnic groups are said to see APGA as a regional party without national spread and will find it hard too give the party a blessing. Others argue that this is so because the majority of the people of the region are travellers and are apathetic to political issues. Nevertheless, these views do not in any way make Rochas Okorocha a less marketable candidate.

Dr Kenechukwu Ugwu Nnamani, former Senate President and founder of Ken Nnamani Centre for Leadership and Development, is another likely choice of the South-East. A sound academic, consultant and social commentator, Nnamani is widely respected in Nigeria and beyond as a man whose sagacity and firmness on matters of principle botched the inordinate ambitions of Chief Obasanjo to run for the third term. His display of transparency and responsibility during the debate and voting for the third term bid endeared him to many Nigerians, especially Northerners. Indeed, his democratic style of leadership in the Senate brought forward debates that shaped Nigeria. 

Ken Nnamani

As a social commentator and a democrat par excellence, the former Senator who represented Enugu East has remained vociferous on national issues. In one of his interviews in 2009, the 63-year old politician had said: “Some of the blames for the truncation or stultification of democracy are rightly placed at the doorsteps of politicians. It is true that politicians have often shown greed for power and have refused to play by the rule. We can all remember what happened during the Second Republic when unwillingness of those in power to allow the sanctity of the ballot box led to conflicts that encouraged the military to intervene and take over power. This was also the same in the First Republic.”

Again, his wide acceptance is further validated by his affinity with Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, self-styled military president of Nigeria. It is on record that Dr. Nnamani was the chairman if IBB’s Presidential Declaration in Abuja prior to the 2011 PDP primaries. When the Ciroma-led Northern Political Leaders’ Forum, NPLF, chose Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, he also stood behind the new choice of the ‘Nine Wise Men’. This simply tells a keen observer that his acceptability in the North will pose no threat as those who knew his stance will simply encourage their people to support him, as one good turn deserves another.

However, as much as this could be a plus, it is sometimes seen as a minus to him in the region. Many Igbo people who supported Jonathan were surprised that Nnamani could betray them to support a Northerner whose region has been ruling Nigeria for years. Worse still, many even wonder why he had to associate himself with former leaders whose records are questionable.  For instance, Joe Igbokwe, a Lagos-based writer, captures the mood of the people thus: “What is Ken Nnamani doing with treasury looters in Abuja? What is my hero of the Obasanjo’s ‘third term agenda’ doing with the man (IBB) who destroyed our yesterday and took our country back forty years? What is the eagle doing with the lily-livered chicken?”

However, it is widely reported that he dumped the camp and supported Jonathan when Atiku fell like a pack of cards in the PDP presidential primaries in January 2011. He also told Ciroma and others to, as a matter of party discipline, support Jonathan. These do not in any way show that he cannot be supported by the region, as he is a sellable candidate. Though age may work against him, many still feel that this may not be a problem since the country still needs the experiences of mature people.

Coming behind Senator Nnamani is Prof Chukwuma Charles Soludo, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and consultant to 18 international organizations, a man described by Okwuosa Ibe as a “perfect candidate, erudite scholar and a man loved by the North”. Soludo it was who initiated the current reforms going on in the banking industry and increased Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, a yardstick used to measure the market value of investment flowing into the country from foreigners. During his tenure as CBN governor, FDI stood at $8.5 billion but fell to $2.3 billion in 2009 when he had long left office. Currently, he is the chairman of the Board of Directors of Africa Institute for Applied Economics, Nigeria; member, the Chief Economist Advisory Council, the World Bank; and member, the Commission of Experts of the United Nations on Reforming the Global Financial System. With best student awards from first degree to PhD, Soludo appears to be one of the best brains in the region. Up till now, his incisive response to Olusegun Aganga’s allegations that he was “talking down the economy” continues to excite intellectuals. 

Chukwuma Soludo

But some respondents say Soludo’s Achilles’ heel is that he is stubborn and sometimes arrogant. Many even accuse him of highhandedness, especially those who have closely worked with him. Equally, a lot of the people of the region feel that he should not have contested the February 6, 2010 Anambra gubernatorial election as the circumstances surrounding his emergence and the actual election dragged his reputation to the mud. Worse still, many see his association with Atiku Abubakar and his vociferous support for a Northerner in the 2011 presidential elections as suspect and a betrayal of his region. Others who hold a different position feel that he, just like Nnamani, Ekwueme and others, were supporting the emergence of a Northerner in order to increase the chances of a South-Easterner in 2015. But in spite of all these, it is very likely that Soludo will not have any problem of acceptability, even though many in the North are still bitter with him over some of his reforms in the financial sector.

Lastly, some respondents eagerly mentioned former special assistant on special duties to President Obasanjo, Chief Emmanuel Nnamdi Uba, as a possible candidate for the presidency. One thing that goes for the Uga, Anambra-born politician, who ruled Anambra State as governor for about two weeks in 2007 before the Supreme Court showed him the exit and installed Peter Obi, is his amiable nature. An insider to the intrigues that led to the appointment of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as the running mate to the late Yar’Adua said that Chief Uba was appointed to run as vice-president but declined, saying that he preferred to vie for the governorship position in his home state, Anambra. It was in fact revealed that Andy Uba, as he is popularly called, recommended the appointment of Goodluck Jonathan, just like it was reported that the incarcerated James Ibori was instrumental to the emergence of Yar’Adua. The logic, therefore, is that if he had accepted the offer, he would now have been the president of the country.

Andy Uba

But all doors are not yet closed for Uba, according to observers. His ability to have facilitated the appointment of high profile people in the region as well as his assistance of many Northerners and Southerners in general make him a generally accepted candidate. But some people feel that Uba, who is currently in the Senate representing Anambra South, may still have an eye on the Anambra Government House in 2014.

However, Andy Uba’s chances may be stalled by the role his younger brother, Chief Chris Uba, played in the abduction of Dr Chris Ngige, former governor of Anambra State. Many feel that it was his connections that gave his younger brother act in that manner. Equally, his alleged manipulation of the 2007 elections in Anambra State to his favour, his reported involvement with Saminu Turaki, former governor of Jigawa State over N2 billion allegedly paid into Obasanjo’s accounts for the facilitation of the third term bid, and the $170,000 scandal may make him a less possible choice of the people. Some even allege that he was having an affair with Pastor Faith Vedelago, an Abuja-based TV evangelist. But just like in the senatorial battle, Andy Uba may end up being a sellable candidate, if only he can re-make his image with the opportunity before him in the Senate.

But beyond the individual impediments of the above-named candidates, in the wider Nigeria, there are heaps of odds stacked almost sky high for the South-East on the road to winning the presidency in 2015. Key among this is the fact that in spite of all his pledges to the contrary, Jonathan may present himself for re-election in 2015. He has no reasons not to. It is his constitutional right. As Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu rightly pointed out, “South-East presidency in 2015 is dicey. I can’t say it is not realizable but take note that Jonathan is entitled to another four years after this, and from my experience in Nigeria, most incumbents would always want to complete their tenure. I would be surprised if he will not like to complete his remaining four years.”

It is common knowledge that the incumbency factor is very strong in Nigerian politics as most incumbents rarely lose out when they seek second term. As Steve Osuji, eminent journalist and pubic affairs analyst, once wrote, “No Nigerian incumbent dreams of stepping down. If he had any dreams at all, it would be to stay on to third, fourth and even indefinite terms. And right from this rudimentary level, the incumbent deploys everything at his disposal to beat down any opposition. Then again, does he have things at his disposal? He actually has the world under his feet. The party structure and machinery across board are not only on the incumbent’s payroll, they are at his mercy. The state’s treasury is in his keep; the state security apparati are his to deploy. So are the numerous appointees, the civil servants, the network of vigilante groups, name them. In like manner, the judiciary and legislature are within the incumbent’s purview, if not beck and call…. In this part of the world, the incumbent would win an election one million times if he organised it.”

Nigeria’s history is replete with examples. In 1983, President Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, won a second tenure ahead of Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, and Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigerian Peoples Party, NPP. This was in spite of the ignominious tag of Shagari’s regime as corrupt. Equally, despite the Atiku Abubakar’s gruelling challenge prior to the 2003 PDP primaries, Obasanjo still won his second term bid, beating formidable foes like Muhammadu Buhari hands down. Stories from the states across the country have not differed markedly, though much of this seems to be changing at the moment.

Another issue that could make nonsense of the dream of a president of South-East extraction in 2015 is the problem of leadership. Observers have continued to point out that Ndigbo do not have generally accepted political leaders anymore. Igbo leadership, many say, died with the early Igbo leaders like Late Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Dr. Akanu Ibiam, Dr. Michael Okpara, and so on, who were easily accepted and heeded by the generality of Ndigbo. Today, there is a most worrisome situation where every individual makes claims to Igbo leadership and goes about trying to lord it over the people who also stoutly refuse to accept such questionable positions acquired with equally questionable wealth. These pseudo-leaders themselves fight dirty and wash their dirty linens in the public, with the outcome being the apparent lack of personalities of Igbo extraction that can compete favourably at the national stage inspired by the knowledge that their kith and kin are solidly behind them. This scenario raises serious concerns in some quarters that the South-East may not be organized enough anytime to produce credible personalities that could be acceptable to other regions of the country.

Some observers also believe that throwing up a credible and marketable presidential material of South-East extraction is another major challenge to the project since it is only when Ndigbo come up with a good presidential material that other zones sympathetic to the Igbo cause could be moved to purchase such product. They therefore advise that Ndigbo should build a consensus ahead of 2015. Speaking on the issue, Chief Iwuanyanwu said that if Ndigbo play their card very well, if Jonathan leaves, they can make it. He, however, stated pointblank that “it requires a lot of wisdom and knowledge. If it is this way we fight on the pages of newspapers, I don’t think we will get there. We have to wear our thinking cap to plan, strategize, lobby, and make contacts, and not just sit here and cast blames on everybody as if they owe you. Nobody owes you anything. You have to fight to grab it yourself. Power is not something somebody will bring and say take.”

Again, well meaning Igbo people are worried to death that Ndigbo tend to find it hard to speak with one voice in the present day Nigeria. Regrettably, this tendency towards perpetual discordance in addressing issues concerning the zone, especially in the larger Nigeria, has contributed in no small measure to the inability of the zone to actually find its bearing in the country’s socio-political milieu. When Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was the leader of the Igbo nation, his policy statements about the zone were frequently attacked, first by Ukpabi Asika, then administrator of East Central State, and later by Dr Chuba Okadigbo. Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu’s valiant efforts at giving Ndigbo a pride of place in Nigeria received known vitriolic attacks from the people he worked so hard to salvage. Also, Dr. Ekwueme’s efforts to build Igbo consensus was also dealt mortal blows by the likes of Chief Jim Nwobodo. Many analysts believe that Dr Alex Ekwueme’s bright chances of clinching the PDP’s ticket at the 1998 presidential primary slipped through his fingers courtesy of Chief Jim Nwobodo’s antics. Till date, many still point to that narrow miss as a major political hara-kiri which the Igbo visited on themselves.

Unfortunately, even as work has begun in earnest, there seems to be no plausible indication that this malaise could be shown the back door soon. If anything, the in-fighting is assuming alarming proportions as evidenced by the war going on right now in Imo State between Gov. Rochas Okorocha and leaders of the PDP. Many also say it is just a matter of time before conflagrations erupt in the other four states. Naturally, this diseased condition would greatly detract and not add value to the issue at stake.